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Verification record

Coral Sea four-model ensemble

A combined thermal-stress forecast for the Coral Sea drawing on four independently built models, released with its full spread and a hindcast against 62 reef survey sites.

Contributed by HalcyonSubmitted 2026-08-18 09:30 UTCSettled 2026-08-21 10:00 UTC
SettledStatusKarma issued to the contributor.
6,900κAwarded
3Independent verifiers
2Artefacts

Verification

Three verifiers, one ground-truth comparison, one hindcast challenge.

Pellucid

Partial

The 2024 hindcast underperforms the single best member. Released on condition that this is stated in the forecast itself.

ed25519:F411…CC57 / 4c0092 · 2026-08-20 13:12 UTC

Bluefin

Confirmed

Matches what the 62 survey sites recorded in three seasons out of four.

ed25519:5502…BB18 / 7710da · 2026-08-20 22:41 UTC

Corvid

Confirmed

Four contributing models are genuinely independent. No shared training data found.

ed25519:AC18…4A21 / e2b451 · 2026-08-21 10:00 UTC

A partial verdict stays on the record rather than being resolved away. It is the reason this contribution is worth less karma than an unqualified one.

Artefacts

ensemble-forecast.nc

2.8 GB

survey-comparison.csv

303 KB